Refuse-to-release is the product.
Released days are the only days for sale. The chain below runs nightly on every completed UTC day — five gates, in order. A day that fails any gate is not released; we recover it and re-run, and every correction is dated on the ledger.
What runs, what it checks, what makes it fail.
Close gates
Per selector, expected market windows are compared against what was observed — including the evidence-gated venue_unlisted disposition. 100ms coverage floors and freshness lineage are checked on every aligned row. The excerpt is the real 2026-07-17 close — the first LIVE venue_unlisted disposition: one ETH 15m window the venue provably never created, excused by a recorded hydration-attempt proof (docs/evidence/2026-07-18-autonomous-promotion-and-site-live-index.md).
On-chain trade reconciliation
Every Polymarket trade partition is proven against the CTF-exchange OrdersMatched event on Polygon. Every trade row carries the transaction hash it was matched to, so you can re-check it yourself on-chain.
Artifact audits
Schema contracts, per-dataset timestamp walls (receive must not trail event, with the disclosed Predict.Fun clock-ahead exception stored honestly), value domains, manifest row counts and SHA256, and stable-ID uniqueness are all enforced against the written file.
Durable mirror + verification
Files are mirrored to object storage and re-verified by their SHA256 metadata — never by trusting storage ETags. Hundreds of files per day, every one re-checked after the copy.
Gapless promotion gate
Day D is refused unless D-1 is already released. The archive can only advance one contiguous day at a time — a customer never hits a missing day between inception and the latest release.
One contiguous run. No silent gaps.
The D-1 rule holds the archive to a single unbroken run. When a day goes red we recover it and re-run the whole chain — pre-customer re-inceptions have happened and are listed below, in plain language.
The released chain restarts at the ten-source inception day. Every prior day was withdrawn to the public corrections ledger — nothing is sold that did not certify. View the corrections ledger →
Every withdrawal and disclosure, dated.
We publish what we withdrew and why. venue_unlisted is recorded as evidence — a venue-side fact with a timestamped transcript — never as an apology for our own gap.
| Date | Scope | Type | Reason & action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Released chain · six sources | WITHDRAWAL | Ten-source launch reset: the pre-launch chain (2026-07-16..18) was withdrawn whole-day by operator policy; predict_fun orderbooks carried source_ts_ms=0 rows (zero-timestamp defect, fixed same day). The released lane stays empty until all ten sources certify green together — the new inception day starts the customer chain. action → chain withdrawn → ten-source re-inception pending |
| 2026-07-17 | Released chain · six sources | RE-INCEPTION | Withdrew 2026-07-13 and 07-14 after the 2026-07-15 boundary-restart outage left that day unrecoverably red — a gapless chain cannot extend across a hole. The 2026-07-16 close passed every phase (2,080/2,080 expected windows) and became the new inception. No customer ever held a withdrawn day. action → inception reset → 2026-07-16 |
| 2026-07-14 | Polymarket Up/Down · 5-minute windows | RE-INCEPTION | Withdrew 2026-07-10 and 07-11 after 2026-07-12 carried Up/Down windows the venue never created. The chain re-incepted at 2026-07-13, and no customer ever held a withdrawn day — these were pre-customer. action → inception reset → 2026-07-13 |
| 2026-07-12 | Polymarket Up/Down · 5-minute windows | VENUE_UNLISTED | The venue never created nine expected 5-minute windows — identified by retrospective forensic analysis (G-04), because the live hydration-attempt recorder only exists from 2026-07-15. Pre-recorder days keep hard-red semantics: without collection-time proof this day stays quarantined, never excused. The first LIVE evidenced disposition came on 2026-07-17 (see the close-gate excerpt above). action → none — day quarantined; pre-recorder, no live evidence standard existed |
| 2026-07-09 | Polymarket broad · census | RE-INCEPTION | Withdrew the certified 2026-07-07 and 07-08 when 2026-07-09 proved unrecoverable — a broad-universe census gap. Recovered and re-incepted rather than ship a break in the chain. action → inception reset |